Using data from CLHLS 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, this paper constructs a healthy ageing index based on multi-dimensional indicators to portray the age trajectory of healthy ageing of Chinese older adults. From the perspective of life course and health equity, this study analyzes the urban-rural differences and trends in the age trajectory of healthy ageing. The results indicate that the healthy ageing level of urban older adults is significantly better than that of rural older adults, mainly due to the urban advantages in childhood family background, socioeconomic status in adulthood, and institutional support. The urban-rural difference in healthy ageing weakens as age increases, showing a “convergence effect”. This difference has also narrowed across cohorts, mainly because the healthy ageing level of the younger cohorts in urban areas has declined substantially compared to older cohorts. This study discusses policy implications in improving the healthy ageing index system, strengthening dynamic monitoring, and focusing on the effectiveness of healthy ageing intervention policies from the perspective of life course and health equity.

Throughout human history, every major disaster event has led to fertility fluctuations. This paper explores the general patterns between disaster events and fertility. Firstly, fertility rate decreases in the short cycle during and after the disaster event, rebounds in the medium cycle, and returns to the predisaster ongoing trend in the long cycle. Secondly, in terms of external factors, wider geographical scope of the disaster event, larger scale of affected population, and higher mortality rate are all causing fertility fluctuation more fiercely. Additionally, pandemics and environment related disaster events may have a negative impact on fecundity, leading to a reduction in fertility. Thirdly, in terms of the internal factors, economic development, education level, and the average age of the affected population would change the amplitude of fertility fluctuation, but not the direction of fluctuation. Suggested by these mechanism analysis, COVID19 has reduced the fertility rate by the combined influence of psychological shock of high death toll, economic recession, production shutdown, uncertain future life expectations, and weakened confidence. Keywords：Fertility Fluctuation, Disaster Event, COVID19

The general trend of population and development is characterised by rapid population ageing, which is one of the irreversible changes and the basic national conditions in current and future China, determining the long-term nature of the challenge and the arduousness of the task. Since the beginning of this century, especially since the 19th National Congress of CPC, CPC's great concept on actively dealing with population ageing has improved in practice and consolidated the population support system for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. On the centenary of the founding of CPC, the establishment of a comprehensive and integrated system awareness, and the implementation of the national strategy to actively deal with population ageing are important foundations for adapting to the deep ageing society during the 14th FiveYear Plan period, and necessary preconditions for opening the new journey to build a socialist modern country in a holistic way. Specifically, it is necessary to consolidate economic wealth reserves, enhance political governance capabilities, cultivate cultural values, ensure peoples livelihoods, and promote ecological civilization construction according to the Fivesphere Integrated Plan.

Based on World Bank population and economic data for 13 countries, this paper explores how economic growth might be affected by population declines, and whether and how economic growth can be sustained when population decreases. International experience shows that economic development can still be achieved during population decline. Analyses from the perspectives of consumption and production suggest that, overall, the negative impact of population decline on economic growth is mild in the short term but will be larger in the long term. In the future, to better deal with the challenges brought by the population decline, we should develop labor resources, improve the efficiency of factor allocation, promote scientific and technological innovation, take advantage of the large population size and the regional discrepancies in development, explore both international and domestic markets, improve population policies, and support further research on population decline.

Population ageing is one of the greatest challenges for the human society in the 21st century, impacting social and economic development of all the countries in the world. This paper focuses on health and medical expenditure of the elderly in the context of rapid population ageing in China. Based on the Health Transition and Two Part Models, it analyzes the fitted value of the transition probabilities and medical expenditure of disabled elderly. On the basis of future elderly population in China, it predicts the size of Chinese elderly with various health statuses and the trend of medical expenditure. The study finds that the elderly with mild disability have better health maintenance probability and better health improvement probability, while the elderly with moderate and severe disabilities have higher risk of becoming poor health status or death. Along with the increase of the elderly, the size of disabled elderly population in China is expanding, which exerts great pressure on medical services and medical expenditure.

Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006-2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han nationality, and this is the case at all parities. The secondchild fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the twochild policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao have strong fertility behaviors, meanwhile the Yi tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20-24 years to 25-29 years, and the fertility level at the older age group of Han nationality has increased, pushing up the mean age at childbearing with that being higher of Han nationality than that of ethnic minorities. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderately high fertility level.

At the historical juncture of 40 years since the Reform and Opening-up, we review the positive impacts of demographic dividend on Chinas economic miracle. Firstly, the rapid demographic transition leads to the large-scale and growing labor force, contributing to the demographic window of opportunity. It has been further reinforced by the superimposed human capital accumulated by rapid socioeconomic development. Secondly, under the guidance of Reform and Opening-up strategy, various economic and social policies built on the basic national conditions are gradually explored, guaranteeing the harvest of demographic dividend. These policies include allowing the free flow of labor, developing labor-intensive industries, reforming the system of employment and entrepreneurship, promoting equal labor opportunity for men and women, carrying out the healthy China initiative, implementing the strategy for invigorating China through science-education. Thirdly, the peaceful international environment and the globalization process have paved the way for economic development. Overall, with the combination and matching of a series of internal reform and opening to the outside world, China has become a model country harvesting the demographic dividend and creating an economic miracle.

Using the 2016 survey data of fertility decision making collected in Ningbo City,Zhejiang Province,this paper examines the effects of family resources,cultural norms,and gender of the first child on fertility decision making of the second child. Results show that fertility decision making of the second child is constrained by both family resources and cultural norms. About 20% of the women with one child want to have the second child. However,the second child fertility decision-making model is complicated. Women‘’s decision is heavily influenced by whether the existing child can meet their son preference,the
cost-utility of child,and family resources. In addition,the decision-making model varies by household registration. Urban women have relatively low preference for boys,and their decision is primarily determined by family resources. Therefore,their second child fertility decision is more rational. In contrast,migrating and rural women??s fertility decision-making of the second child is characterized by value orientation.Children‘’s utility and boy preference have a greater impact on their fertility decision-making.

Using data from the 2008 Chinese General Social Survey，the article examines patterns and determinants of living arrangement of young people (aged 18-32 with at least one parent alive)，contrasting only children with non-only children. Results show that demographic characteristics，offspring demand and the only child status have significant impacts on the choice of living arrangement of the young children，while parental demand also plays a role in the choice of living arrangement of the only children. Logistic decomposition models suggest that the differences in living arrangement between the only children and the non-only children are largely a result of differences in their choice of living arrangement.Socio-demographic characteristics explain a relatively small proportion of the differences.Disadvantageous population structure in the only-child families is the major determinant of their living arrangement.  

China and India are the largest population countries in the world. The sex ratio at birth (SRB) of both of them have become higher than normal scale and rising since the early of 1980s. Currently,China’s SRB is around 120 per 100 females,and India is 113. Estimate of basing on the census data of India (2001) and China (2000),the size of missing girls between 0 to 19 years old in India and China is 11.9457 millions and 16.1242 millions,and their rate of missing girls is 6.12% and 6.82% respectively. This number and rate of China decreased with age,mainly to the prenatal female missing because of higher SRB,sex selective abortion and female missing report or under report. But the India’s indicators increased with age,mainly to postnatal female disappearance because of the lower sex ratio of age specific mortality rate and male superior living condition than female at young age.

1st October 2009 is the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.Over the last 60 years,particularly since the reform and opening up,China has completed the historical transition of population reproduction,becoming demographically a developed country.In order to celebrate the achievements of China’s population and demography,this issue of Population and Development Forum has invited some distinguished Chinese demographers to summarize and discuss the major changes and progress that have been made in population and demography in China over the 60 years.Professor Wu Cangping examines the irreplaceable position of demography as a discipline in China.Professor Li Jianmin highlights the unique pattern of China’s demographic transition in the context of changing population policy.Professor Wang Guixin looks at changing patterns of migration in China in the context of socio-economic changes in China.Professor Gui Shixun explores China’s old-age security system in the context of rapid aging in China.Finally Professor Yuan Xin calls for both theoretical and empirical researches on the unprecedented demographic challenges in China now and future.

China has had abnormally high sex ratios at birth (SRB) for a quarter of century. One of the consequences is the imbalance of population size between males and females, however, it is difficult to reach the exact number according to current available different statistical data sources. By indirect estimation, the size of male births in excess of female births during 1980 to 2006 are totaled 33.31 million, of which 18.46 millions are the result of normal SRB imbalance (SRB≤107) while the remaining 14.65 millions are the result of abnormal SRB imbalance (SRB>107). By the end of 2006, the size of males in excess of females is estimated to be 34.02 millions in the total survivors aged 0 to 26 (born in 1980 to 2006), of which 19.65 millions resulted from normal SRB imbalance and 14.37 millions from abnormal SRB imbalance.